In a months time we will be voting to decide whether we stay in the European Union. But I don’t think we have enough information to make an educated decision.
This is probably the single biggest decision of this decade and emotions seem to be running high and ideals running wide in the world of Politics.
But ultimately a decision like this should be made on clear forecasts and researched facts. As I see it although there is a pretty extensive range of issues there are 3 that seem to be most peoples main concern. 1. Economics, 2.Migration, and 3 National Security.
- 1. Economics – According to the CBI the UK profits £91 billion per year from being an EU member. Membership costs the UK £18 billion per year, so by my calculations membership costs about 20% of the benefit. Therefore if we were to vote to leave, we would only benefit if either loss of profit from EU trade was less than 19% or if gain of profit from new markets was more than whatever the actual loss of profit from EU trade is. So what is the forecast for loss of profit from the EU, or gain of profit from new markets? Beyond mere opinion based speculation, like “well I don’t think Europe will close its markets to us” or “I’m sure China will want to do more business with us” I haven’t really found anything credible to answer this questions.
- 2. Migration – If we leave the EU, autonomy will equal complete control over our borders and migration into the UK. (Which given the media’s assassination of the governments ability to oversee migration from outside of the
EU rings with a certain irony.) But how else would leaving the EU affect the UK in the context of migration? a) How will it affect UK expats living all over Europe, there is an estimated 1.3 million UK expats living outside of the UK in Europe. b) How will it affect nationals from EU members providing vital services in the UK? c) How will affect travel through Europe? However it would seem the more important question might be, what immigration system would be employed by the border agency instead? Once again past opinion based speculation there seems very little credible answers to that question.
- 3. National Security – If we leave the EU, autonomy will equal com-
plete control over our national security resources and departments returning complete power to the UK authorities. Sounds like a good thing? We will be rid of EU interference, and back in control but with no formal agreement of European cooperation we will only have trust in common decency to rely on the European authorities passing significant information to our services. So how will we reinforce our ability to protect the UK public when budgets for government services are already being slashed? Perhaps new agreements with new allies, but that raises an important question to which once again there are few answers beyond opinion based speculation. Who might we makes deals with to reinforce national security? Some of the possibilities raise some major ethical concerns.
Although Pais is a non-profit organisation, from a business perspective, if one of my team came to me with a proposal to completely scrap one of our partnerships. I would not pay a blind bit of attention to them until they demonstrated to me that they have thoroughly researched the possibilities. I would make no decision until I had the facts and I was sure I had the most accurate forecasts. In short I would expect a comprehensive proposal of options from my team to inform my decision.
I do not like the fact that the EU restricts our trade options, I don’t like the fact that EU courts have the power to interfere with who we expel from the country and I also don’t think another layer of bureaucracy makes for very efficient security. But more than that I don’t like making significant decisions with little or no credible forecasts, facts or proposals.
So how should we vote?
In my opinion the only way to vote is to apply the same principles you would about a new business deal or venture in life. Gather the facts, calculate the risks and if you can’t … well what would you do?